Steen Jakobsen, Chefvolkswirt bei der Saxo Bank, wünscht sich von US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke, den Geldhahn und vor allem das Reden darüber abzustellen. Ohnehin hätten sich die Wirkungen von „QE1“ und „QE2“ mit den Effekten ihrer Ankündigungen bereits größtenteils erschöpft. Die Geldspritzen selbst hätten nur noch wenig nachhaltig bewirkt. „Bernanke hat bereits drei Billionen US-Dollar in den Markt gegossen. Doch wozu? Gebracht hat es nichts“, moniert Jakobsen. „Die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA liegt noch immer bei mehr als neun Prozent.“
Zudem seien die positiven Effekte von QE1 dann bei QE2 schon schwächer ausgefallen. „Die Aktienmärkte stiegen nach dem ersten QE-Programm um 78 Prozent, nach QE2 nur noch um 29 Prozent“, so der Saxo Bank Experte. Für QE3 seien somit noch geringere Wirkungen zu erwarten.
Konkret erwartet Jakobsen folgende Effekte, sollte die Fed zum dritten Mal die Gelddruckmaschine anwerfen:
· Aktienmärkte steigen um 7 bis 15 Prozent
· Dollarschwäche macht USA wettbewerbsfähiger: in zwei bis drei Jahren wieder mit Asien vergleichbar
· Goldpreis könnte auf 3.000, wenn nicht sogar 4.000 US-Dollar steigen – andere Metalle ziehen mit
Der Saxo Bank Chefvolkswirt gesteht allerdings ein, dass die Fed wahrscheinlich kaum Alternativen hat: „Was bleibt der US-Notenbank übrig, als auf den psychologischen Einfluss ihrer Maßnahmen zu hoffen?“
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Less QE and more radio silence please Mr. Bernanke
By
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist Saxo Bank
When talking about the impact from Quantitative Easingi1( QE) one has to realise that most academic studies show that the biggest “impact” from QE on markets comes from the actual announcement of it rather than the execution of it. An analysis of the two prior QE introductions point to a 50 to 100 basis point reduction on bond yields and subsequent inflation of equities via “a feel good” factor – the so-called wealth effect.
But realistically, what has been the net impact of QE1 and QE2? Chairman Bernanke has used 3,000 billion US Dollars to create what? Nothing! Unemployment is still above 9.0 per cent, the housing market is still in a slump, and now the only successful thing going for the Fed is the stock market's rise from the floor at 666.00 in March 2009. But now there's talk of an interbank funding crisis and unrealised losses. It certainly smells like 2008, doesn't it? Or what about August 2010? – Yes! It is almost a 100 per cent analogy to last year. It’s actually like watching the movie Groundhog Day.
The impact from another round of QE on the wider capital markets this time around is likely to be more limited than following previous announcements. At best I foresee two to eight weeks of relief risk-on trading, but with the market no longer willing to remain idle while policy makers buy even more time. Thus the positive tone could change sooner rather than later. Putting numbers on the upside potential on the stock market it is important to note that the start of QE1 created a 78 percent rally in stocks, while QE2 saw a 29 percent rally, so the impact is clearly smaller from one QE to another. The most likely scenario from here on would be an upwards move to the tune of 7-15 percent (Target: 1250-1350 in S&P cash.)
QE3 could also signal the final leg of a weak USD. I anticipate the U.S. as being two or three years away from being fully competitive again as a production hub, competing with Asia. With a real unemployment rate of 17 percent and the US Dollar at historic lows the U.S. seems to have come full circle in terms of unit labour costs meaning it can soon compete more efficiently in the global marketplace. I believe that post the next presidential election we will see labour market policies which are very beneficial to production in the U.S. This is also a theme which Boston Consulting Group has touched on in its May report called: “Made in the USA, Again2.” Due to this QE3 could present an opportunity to scale into long USD, after the grace period. The US Dollar will first weaken and (then ultimately strengthen). This in itself would be a sign of the economic world healing itself.
Looking at how precious metals will react to a new QE, the answer is simple. I think we will see USD 3,000 if not USD 4,000 for gold, and other metals should follow suit. That said, as with the USD, if this is the “end game” then the spike will be followed by risk aversion which could overall curtail the highs. At all times one has to realise this is close to the end of the trend, and for every USD 100 gold rises, the risk increases disproportionately as there is more and more speculative hangover involved.
There will be monetary stimulus – the question is in what form and shape. The U.S. is fast approaching a zero growth environment. Going into actual recession for more than one or two quarters is statistically very difficult for the U.S. as its population is relatively young, innovative and mobile. If we don’t get QE3 we will be faced with some version of Operation Twist in the form of support for the bond market’s longer dated maturities. This should be directed specifically to the segments which are relevant for housing and long-term funding. Effectively the Fed would then buy bonds in the 10 to 30 year sector of the yield curve with a pre-announced target rate below a certain number like 1.50 percent (currently it is trading at 2.25 percent). To finance this, the Fed would turn around and simultaneously sell shorter maturity T-bills making the exercise relatively balance neutral.
The real question however is: is there anything the Fed can do to stimulate growth beyond keeping rates lower for longer? The answer is probably a resounding “No!” The Fed’s impact on the market is limited to psychology and monetary easing. When looking for growth an old economic rule states that when in a debt trap, only fiscal policies work, which means that when in a debt trap you need to increase the stimulus through tax cuts, public sector jobs and the like. (Note: This is not my medicine, but the Keynesian standard approach to it.)
Pre-election fiscal policy measures are in the hands of Congress with huge political opposition, but post election the story will be very different.
There is another political theory stating that the best environment to create growth in is one in which politicians have no power to pass legislation (similar to the U.S. situation for now until the U.S. elections). Think about Clinton: he had a major “programme” coming in as President, yet failed to get anything whatsoever done in his eight years in the White House which then led to the biggest growth period in U.S. history. What does this tell us? Total radio silence works as the micro-economy - investors, consumers and companies - adjust their behaviour and consumption to the new reality and then start moving forward? The last thing that we need is “political noise” and promises of better days ahead with nothing to back them up.
Steen Jakobsen was appointed to the position of Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist in March 2011.Mr. Jakobsen returned to the Bank after two years’ absence. During that time he has been Chief Investment Officer for Limus Capital Partners. Prior to his departure in early 2009, Mr. Jakobsen was with Saxo Bank for almost nine years as Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Jakobsen has more than 20+ years of experience within the fields of proprietary trading and alternative investment. In 1989, after finishing his studies in Economics at Copenhagen University, he started his career at Citibank N.A. Copenhagen from where he moved to Hafnia Merchant Bank as Director, Head of Sales and Options. In 1992, he joined Chase Manhattan in London as VP, Head of Scandinavian Sales, and then the Chase Manhattan Proprietary Trading Group. 1995-1997 he worked as a Proprietary Trader and Head of Flow Desk at Swiss Bank Corp., London. In 1997, he became Global Head of Trading, FX and Options at Christiania (now Nordea) in New York until he joined UBS in New York in 1999 as the Executive Director in the Global Proprietary Trading Group.
1 Bank of England, Working Paper No. 393 – The Financial market impact of quantitative easing by; Michael Joyce, Ana Lasaosa, Ibrahim Stevens and Matthew Tong
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